Pakistan’s IDP crisis

Over 350,000 people have been displaced since the start of the military offensive against militants in North Waziristan, according to the FATA Disaster Management Authority (FDMA). The fighting first escalated in May, but after this month’s deadly attack on Karachi airport — claimed by an Uzbek militant group and the Pakistani Taliban — the army officially launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb. As the military pounds Taliban hideouts in North Waziristan, internally displaced people (IDPs) are fleeing to safer areas, i.e. the towns of Bannu, Peshawar and Kohat. Roughly 4,000 families are reported to have crossed into Afghanistan and many more are being put up in refugee camps. The influx is likely to accelerate. These people — collateral damage in a war they are trapped in through no fault of their own — are poor and earn a living through farming, family trades and petty jobs. When war hits, they pack up their belongings — whatever they can fit into a bed sheet and carry on their backs — and leave home to go off into a rather uncertain future.IDP situations are dramatically challenging for any country; to have the resources to indefinitely sustain an exodus, and to create peace in the areas they left, so they can migrate back, is difficult. In fact, the number of people living as refugees from war or persecution around the world has hit 51.2 million, exceeding the 50 million mark for the first time since World War II. Conflicts are multiplying more and more, and at the same time old conflicts seem never to die. The worry is that Pakistan’s fragile civilian government and its institutions, already fighting on so many fronts, may lack the capacity and means to provide sufficient food, shelter, health and sanitation to those living in the camps, especially with Ramadan round the corner. Currently, the provincial government has released Rs 350 million for relief efforts, Senior Minister Sirajul Haq has announced a Ramadan relief package and has also said IDPs will be provided with SIMs. An emergency has been declared in all the hospitals of the area, and the IDPs are being provided free transport and schooling. At the same time, the government has banned international aid organizations from entering the area. Although most likely for security reasons, it is not the most practical decision to make. More importantly, city administrations and border check posts have begun a polio vaccination campaign as IDPs begin to arrive at transit points, making it mandatory to be vaccinated and turning away those who refuse the drops. This is vital as Pakistan is one of the few countries in the world where polio remains endemic, and 46 of the country’s 70 polio cases were reported this year to be from North Waziristan (mainly because of the vaccination ban imposed by the Taliban since 2012). Even though Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah has ruled out the possibility of opening Sindh’s borders to the IDPs this time round, tribal leaders estimate that between 5,000 and 10,000 will make it to Karachi in search of safety and livelihoods. In the Pakhtun culture, tribe matters and many IDPs travel to relatives’ homes for refuge. This raises questions about what these hundreds of thousands of people will do for employment, and whether they will be able to go back at all once the operation ends. Although the army has claimed to have closed off escape routes in North Waziristan and trapped the militants, it is virtually impossible to seal the area off totally. The militants can scatter into Shawal valley or cross the infamously porous Afghan border, and bide their time till deciding to return. That being said, the Swat IDP crisis was hailed as an international success story, and the hope is that this crisis will be handled the same way. A population exhausted by conflict could become a soft target for militants, making stability in the north west even more elusive. The IDP camps could become breeding grounds for the menace the army is trying to fight.